I say Duane Wade signs with Toronto next year.
Why? Well there's lots of reasons. It takes consideration from a variety of perspectives. And after taking those considerations, you realize its the best opportunity for all parties.
First: Chris Bosh - I think its safe to say he will take his services elsewhere unless the organization can make some sort of dramatic commitment to winning in the immediate future. The team is looking decent right now, and if all things stay the same, could marginally improve next year, but to reach that next plateau, they will need a major piece. Wade is exactly what this team needs, and has needed for a long time: an athletic 2-3 that can flat out score. And lets face it, Bosh doesn't really have what it takes to be a "star" franchise player. Hes a computer geek. Sure he at times deludes himself into thinking he can be the man, but deep down, we all know he'd rather play second fiddle. Does he stay if the team throws a couple of table scraps from the 2010 offseason? I can't see it. Does he stay if they sign Duane Wade? Absolutely.
Which leads me to the most important cog in the machine: the MLSE. Infamous for maintaining the profitable status quo with the Maple Leafs, they will be faced with a very important decision to either open the vault or not. Its reasonable to say that they likely realize that every single top-tier team is well over the dollar for dollar luxury tax (the Raptors spend only exactly the limit) and that if they want to become a top tier team they will have to delve into that territory. So, if in their business plan they ever figured that spending 50 million a year (~23 million to Wade and 23 million in tax, plus incidentals) to go deep into the playoffs what better time than the present? Outside of the added basketball revenues there's gotta be a case to be made for the surrounding interests; specifically the condo buildings and restaurant/bar/funtimes area they own and are about to complete right out front the ACC. You have to think that the attention and free press a title contender would draw would be more than just good for property values and most importantly the MLSE bottom line. Its long been rumoured that the plan is for Toronto to host an All-Star weekend in the year the developments are completer (2-3 yrs i believe). Imagine an all-star game and an NBA finals in the same year? I'd go out on a limb and say thats bringing in more than 50 million bucks. Alternatively they keep the vault locked, Bosh leaves and the team languishes into the forseeable future. Does that effect the team financially? I would say theres less butts in the seats this year vs. last. Two years ago the ACC was sold out every time I was there (and I was there a lot). Blame it on the economy, or blame it on a dissapointing 2008-09 campain, but I think its fair to say that if Bosh leaves, even less people come to the games. We're a passionate fans (ask Bill Simmons), but don't be fooled into thinking we'll continue to reach deep into our pockets to come down and watch a loosing team. We're not Leaf fans.
And last but not least, the man of the hour: the Flash, Mr Duane Wade. If your Duane, similar to if your Chris Bosh and Lebron James, your looking at all the potential opportunities in front of you and weighing the pros and cons. If you're Wade do you really think you can play with Lebron? Really? If you're Lebron do you really want to play with Wade? I think if Lebron makes a move he'll do so in the interest of establishing a lasting basketball legacy. The type of thing people talk about for decades. Bringing in another alpha dog means that talk is shared, not to mention being a risk of actually working out. Same goes for Wade. I think if you're Wade, and Toronto throws the kitchen sink at you, the Raptors provide the best opportunity to win immediately, if not several times over the next five years. The way the team is playing right now, with Barney emerging, Bosh playing at a high level, several good young athletic players around him, two legitimate point guards, and (lets make a con a pro) Hedu not playing anywhere near his potential, if you plop Wade onto this team today, they're immediately a top 3 team. Can any other potential destinations offer that? Chicago, New York, Cleveland, Miami, all would have more work to do. Not to mention he can be the man. As mentioned I believe Bosh would be more than happy to share the spotlight with Wade. I'd say he'd prefer it. Also, Wades said many times before, that he thinks Toronto is a top 5 NBA city. He's been playing in Miami, in front of their notoriously fair-weather fans (ask Dan LeBatard), come to Toronto, we'll have 19,000 there every single night.
The only potential rival-opportunity would be the much rumoured Chicago's homecoming. We can't really compete with the sentimental factors. However I just don't look at that roster and see anywhere near the potential the Raps present. Obviously I'm biased, but still.
Anyhow, its going to be a very interesting and eventful off-season, and if by the grace of god by bold predication becomes a reality, Toronto's sports fans will finally have a chance to cheer for a contender. Something we haven't had in 17 years.
